Shiny Odds Calculator
Work out your chance of finding a shiny from the method and number of tries. Below you can compare every Pokémon's shiny form with its normal one.
Chance of ≥1 shiny in 100
2.4%
Approximation assuming independent tries (no chaining/outbreak bonuses).
Shiny gallery
Compare the normal and shiny forms side by side. Pick one from the list below.
Bulbasaur
GrassPoison
How it works
If the chance of a shiny per encounter or egg is p, the chance of getting at least one in n tries is 1−(1−p)ⁿ. The tool also works backwards from a target success rate. Each try is independent — missing does not improve your per-try odds. Chain and outbreak bonuses are not included.
P(at least one) = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ / tries = ⌈log(1 − target) ÷ log(1 − p)⌉
FAQ
What are the odds of a shiny Pokémon?
The base rate is 1/4096. With the Shiny Charm it becomes 1/1365, Masuda-method breeding gives 1/683, and combining both reaches 1/512.
Will I get a shiny within 100 tries?
At the base rate (1/4096), 100 tries give about a 2.4% chance of at least one shiny. The odds reset every try, so piling up attempts never improves your per-try chance.
How many tries do I need to reach 50%, 90% or 99%?
At the base rate: 2,839 tries for 50%, 9,431 for 90% and 18,861 for 99%. With the Shiny Charm (1/1365), 50% takes only 946 tries.
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